Simulating Inclusive School Systems
This research project examines the structural transformation of complex school systems toward inclusive education. Although Germany is committed to inclusive schooling through the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, parallel special school structures still persist and function as systemic and social barriers. The project aims to empirically analyze the structural conditions and developments of inclusive education at federal and state levels and to model them predictively through simulation-based methods. The project aims to inform inclusive education policy through scientifically grounded evidence based on simulation studies.

Publications
Ebenbeck, N., Rieser, J., & Gebhardt, M. (2022). Das sonderpädagogische Fördersystem und die schulische Inklusion - Eine räumlich-strukturelle Analyse auf Basis statistischer Daten. spuren.
In this study, we examine the development of inclusive education in Bavaria, Germany between 2010 and 2020, with a particular focus on disparities between urban and rural regions.
Read preprint here
Ebenbeck, N., Rieser, J., Jungjohann, J., Gebhardt, M. (2022). How the existence of special schools affects the placement of students with special needs in inclusive primary schools. Journal of Special Education Research 22(6).
In this study, we show that in the German federal state of Bavaria, the size, density, and proximity of special schools to the nearest primary school have an impact on the inclusion rates in primary schools.
Read here
See open data here
Ebenbeck, N. & Gebhardt, M. (2025). What if… there were no special schools? A simulation study based on governmental school data of Bavaria, Germany. Zeitschrift für Grundschulforschung, 18. 139-156.
In this study, we simulate the full and partial closure of special schools in Bavaria, Germany, and examine the effects on student enrollment in primary schools and the commuting distances of students.
Read here
See open data here
Ebenbeck, N. & Gebhardt, M. (2025). Every Primary School Needs Resources for Inclusion: Simulating Special Educator Distribution in Urban and Rural Areas in Inclusive School Systems. Preprint. EdArXiv.
In this study, we simulate the full and partial closure of special schools in Bavaria, Germany, and examine the effects on teacher hour distribution in primary schools and the commuting distances of mobile special educators.
Read preprint here
See open data here
Talks
- Ebenbeck, N., Gebhardt, M. (2024, 19. März). Was wäre, wenn Bayern inklusive Schulen statt Förderschulen hätte?. 11. Tagung der Gesellschaft für empirische Bildungsforschung (GEBF), Potsdam.